Early-Warning System for Antimicrobial Resistance in Campylobacter in the Broiler Production Chain from High-Level Indicators-A Graph-Based Machine Learning and Bayesian Approach.

Forecasting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is critical for public health, yet most models neglect the interconnected nature of agricultural systems. Focusing on ciprofloxacin resistance in Campylobacter jejuni-a leading foodborne pathogen in poultry-this study aims to develop a probabilistic framework for identifying high-risk environmental conditions. We employed a graph-based machine learning and Bayesian approach, integrating and discretizing data from international databases. An exploratory classification with XGBoost and SVC was followed by core analysis using a Generalized Naive Bayes (GNB) model for feature selection and a Bayesian Network (BN) to uncover conditional dependencies. The GNB model identified pesticides, land use, and precipitation as key features. The BN revealed a complex web of interactions, showing that resistance probability is highly context-dependent. Precipitation was a critical effect modifier; for example, expanded land use correlated with an 18.3% increase in resistance probability during dry conditions but a 73.7% decrease during wet periods. Scenarios with low and high precipitation were associated with high risk, indicating multiple environmental pathways. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian networks can effectively model the complex, non-linear relationships driving AMR. Ciprofloxacin resistance emerges from system-wide interactions rather than isolated factors. This approach provides a valuable framework for generating hypotheses and supports the development of early-warning systems for targeted antimicrobial stewardship in poultry production.