Effects of Temperature Dependence in Mosquito Mortality on Simulated Chikungunya Virus Transmission.

A compartmental, deterministic model was used to explore the effects of temperature dependency in mosquito mortality on the likelihood of epidemics and the size of outbreaks of Chikungunya virus under Florida temperature conditions. Two known vectors, Aedes albopictus and Ae. aegypti, were included, with similar structure but allowing mortality and abundance parameters to vary between them. The mortality relationship with temperature had a central optimal survival region, with increasing mortality outside these regions. The central temperature and the annual mean temperature were most influential in the likelihood of an epidemic, although the variance explained was low. The central temperature, annual mean temperature and day of virus infection influenced the size of the outbreaks. Regression models including two-way interactions explained more of the variance in outcomes than the main effects models, but there was still substantial variance left unexplained. Given the model structure, higher order interactions would be required to explain most of the variance.