Potential Suitable Habitat Range Shift Dynamics of the Rare Orchid Cymbidium cyperifolium in China Under Global Warming.

Wild orchids, valued for their beauty and economic importance, are facing the challenges of distribution contraction and range shifts from climate change. The rare Cymbidium cyperifolium (class II in the List of National Key Protected Wild Plants in China, Vulnerable on the China Biodiversity Red List) remains understudied regarding its responses to climate variability. Utilizing an enhanced MaxEnt model, we predicted suitable habitats under diverse climate scenarios, revealing a potential distribution of 52.37 × 104 km2, concentrated in eastern Yunnan, western Guangxi, the Guizhou border, and southern Hainan. Cymbidium cyperifolium is sensitive to climate change, and temperature annual range (Bio 7) contributes a significant 77.42% of the distribution probability (i.e., habitat suitability), highlighting temperature's pivotal influence on its distribution. Although the overall potential distribution area and low-suitability regions in China are predicted to decrease, medium and high-suitability areas are expected to expand. The center of mass of the high-altitude habitat is concentrated in southeastern Yunnan Province, migrating just slightly, yet tending westward and northeastward. Based on these findings, we recommend the expansion of existing protected areas or the establishment of new ones for C. cyperifolium, particularly in eastern Yunnan and western Guangxi. Additionally, our research can serve as a reference for the ex situ conservation of C. cyperifolium and other orchids with similar ecological habits, underscoring the broader implications in biodiversity preservation efforts.