Global Trends in Joint Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review and Future Projections.

Background/Objectives: Osteoarthritis, the principal indication for joint arthroplasty, has doubled in incidence since 1990. Advances in surgical techniques, combined with an ageing population, have driven a substantial rise in arthroplasty procedures, presenting numerous challenges for healthcare systems worldwide. This study analyses historical trends in joint arthroplasty, assesses the accuracy of prior projections, and forecasts future demand using data from international arthroplasty registries. The goal is to guide healthcare resource management and policymaking. Methods: A systematic registry search identified 15 nations' joint arthroplasty registries, and 209 annual reports provided high-quality data on primary total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasties (TKA) over the past two decades. Future arthroplasty volumes were projected using a deterministic negative-exponential saturating growth model. Results: From 2010 to 2023, THA incidence rose by 130% to 210%, while TKA increased by 150% to 664% across the analysed national registries. Projections to 2050 indicate sustained growth: THA volumes are expected to rise by 121% to over 200% and TKA by at least 130% across all countries. Conclusions: The ongoing escalation in joint arthroplasty demand necessitates proactive healthcare planning. Without strategic investments in infrastructure, workforce capacity, and digital resources, national healthcare systems risk being overwhelmed by the projected growth in both primary and revision procedures in the coming decades.