Global burden of liver cirrhosis: trends from 1990-2021 and projections to 2060.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis, a progressive and debilitating condition characterized by extensive fibrosis and disruption of hepatic architecture, remains a significant global health challenge, primarily arising from chronic hepatitis and other liver diseases. METHODS: Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were utilized to analyze trends in the incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and prevalence of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 across various geographic regions, aiming to provide guidance for future disease burden interventions. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized for predicting trends up to 2060. RESULTS: In 2021, the global incidence of liver cirrhosis was recorded at 58,417,006 cases. Total death cases attributed to liver cirrhosis escalated to 1,425,142 in 2021, although the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) demonstrated a marked decline. Regional disparities were evident, with the highest incidence reported in North Africa and the Middle East, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions that bear a disproportionate burden. Following the current trends, it is projected that by 2060, the ASDR, ASPR, and DALYs rate for liver cirrhosis will progressively decline. CONCLUSIONS: The findings underscore the need for enhanced strategies to combat liver cirrhosis, especially in high-burden regions. Specifically, the global incidence of liver cirrhosis has increased by 58.21% from 1990 to 2021. This prediction to 2060 holds strategic significance for guiding the adjustment of priorities in future disease burden management efforts.