Climate change and malaria in Chiredzi District, Zimbabwe: emerging evidence and pathways towards malaria prevention.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can influence malaria incidence directly and indirectly, impacting vector and parasite dynamics, along with socioeconomic factors influencing malaria risk. In Zimbabwe there is a paucity of research linking climate change, environmental factors, and malaria incidence, hindering coordinated efforts for malaria elimination. Accordingly, the aim of the study was to explore the link between climate change, environmental factors, and malaria incidences, from 2010 to 2022, in Chiredzi district, Zimbabwe. METHODS: A transdisciplinary approach was applied, combining quantitative weather data from weather stations, malaria incidence data and insights from focus group discussions which were used to glean people's perceptions and knowledge of climate change and malaria in Chiredzi District. Participatory mapping showing hot spots of malaria incidence were also utilized. Statistical analysis in MATLAB was used to analyse the weather and malaria data and a P-value of 0.0479 was obtained which is deemed as statistically significant. ATLAS.ti was used to qualitatively analyse data from the focus group discussions. RESULTS: Key results from the study show evidence of climate change in Chiredzi district manifesting through an increase in rainfall, increase in temperature, change in seasons and extreme weather patterns. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between changes in climate and an increase in malaria incidence. However, in some years the relation is negative, and this can be attributed to other factors. Similarly, malaria incidence is also related to other socioeconomic and environmental factors such as poverty and migration which are further exacerbated by climate change. Malaria incidence is also attributed to other environmental and socio-economic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Further studies with extended datasets that span a longer period need to be carried out. Likewise forecasting malaria incidence based on current climate, environmental and socio-economic conditions is crucial for advocating transformative malaria prevention programs, emphasizing the importance of inclusive partnership and adaptation to a changing climate. New malaria prevention programs that consider the impact of a changing climate on malaria, local environmental and socio-economic factors are urgently needed.