Effect of ambient particulate matter pollution on disease burden globally: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter (PM) refers to solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere. These particles can be inhaled during normal respiration, leading to various respiratory diseases including upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs). We comprehensively evaluated the ambient particulate matter pollution-related disease burden. METHODS: Due to the particularity of Global Burden of Disease 2021 study (GBD 2021), this study only included data on URTIs attributed to PM, and the age limit was under 5 years old. We first assessed the global and subtype-specific mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) in 2021, along with their age-standardized rates. Additionally, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends in disease burden. We will calculate the corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) based on the changes in the number of deaths, DALYs and the age-standardized data of both from 1990 to 2021. Cluster analysis was used to examine regional variations in disease burden across Global Burden of Disease study regions. Finally, ARIMA and exponential smoothing (ES) models were applied to forecast disease burden over the next 25 years. RESULTS: For indoor PM pollution, in 2021, there were 93.98 deaths per 100,000 population and 9,195.39 DALYs globally in children under 5 years of age. Females exhibited higher risks than males, and regions with a low sociodemographic index (SDI) faced elevated risks. Significant disparities in disease burden were observed across GBD regions and nations. Compared to 1990, mortality and DALYs per 100,000 population declined by 52.28% and 51.38%, respectively. ARIMA projections suggest continued declines in the absolute number of mortality and DALYs for both sexes by 2050, though age-standardized rates may increase for males while decreasing for females. For outdoor PM pollution, 2021 recorded 22.58 deaths per 100,000 population and 2,511.13 DALYs globallyin children under 5 years of age. Females and low-middle SDI regions were at higher risk. Mortality and DALYs per 100,000 population decreased by 55.10% and 48.37% compared to 1990. ARIMA forecasts indicate further reductions in mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates for both sexes by 2050. CONCLUSION: Particulate pollutants, particularly indoor PM, pose a significant global public health threat. Tailored strategies based on national conditions are urgently needed to mitigate their impact.