Can a local low-budget intervention make a difference to suicide rates? Evaluating the effectiveness of the Barnet (London) suicide prevention campaign using real-time suspected suicide data.

BACKGROUND: Three quarters of suicides in the UK are by men, of whom only a quarter had contact with mental health services at the time of their death. Community-based interventions are therefore likely to be crucial to reduce (male) suicides, but there is limited evidence to support their effectiveness. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of a multi-strategy campaign to increase uptake of mental health services and peer support amongst working-aged men in Barnet, London, via: (1) targeted promotion of the 'Stay Alive' app, (2) a large scale digital and outdoor media campaign, (3) community outreach targeting male-dominated industries, (4) the first face-to-face "Andy's Man Club" peer-to-peer support group in the borough. METHODS: We used data on suspected suicides in London between 1st March 2021 to 31st November 2023 (N = 1,408) to calculate monthly age-standardised rates in (a) Barnet, (b) surrounding boroughs and (c) the rest of London, for 'naïve' and 'placebo' comparisons during and outside the campaign period, and then before, during and after the campaign. We also estimated maximum exposure to the campaign beyond its duration, and repeated the analysis using a more conservative (February to December 2020) baseline period for Barnet. RESULTS: There was a sizeable drop in suicides in Barnet for the duration of the campaign and the following six months, with 6 to 9 deaths possibly averted thanks to the campaign, which represents a decline of around 20% of the yearly incidence, at a cost of under £6,400 per averted suicide. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that a local, relatively inexpensive community-based campaign can be effective in reducing (suspected) suicides. However, further research is needed to confidently link this decrease in suicides to the campaign, or specific elements of it.