Secular trend of colorectal cancer related with low physical activity from 1990 to 2021 in China.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to report low physical activity related colorectal cancer (LPARCC) death and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in 1990-2021, and decompose the changes in disease burden into population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes. METHODS: We obtained LPARCC data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database. The Joinpoint regression model and the age-period-cohort model (APC) were used to describe the trend of disease burden and analyzed the effects of age, period, and cohort. Finally, a recently developed decomposition method was applied to partition changes in the burden of disease from 1990 to 2021 into components associated with population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, there were significant increased trends in all ages and age-standardized rates of summary exposure values of low physical activity, with percentage changes of 0.46 (95% CI: 0.16 to 0.86) and 0.16 (95% CI: -0.08 to 0.45), respectively. The percentage change of age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for LPARCC from 1990 to 2021 was - 0.07 (95% CI: -0.38-0.37) and percentage change of age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) was - 0.09 (95% CI: -0.37-0.33), both of them showed non-significantly decreased trends. In addition, the results of the Joinpoint regression model demonstrated that the annual percentage changes in ASMR and ASDR rates for LPARCC were - 0.22 (95% CI: -0.52-0.09) and - 0.29 (95% CI: -0.55- -0.03), respectively. Finally, from 1990 to 2021, the ASMR of LPARCC increased by 191.19%, which could be partitioned into age structure (170.62%), mortality change in low physical activity (-15.42%), and population size (35.99%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Over the past 30 years, the number of LPARCC death and DALYs in China had shown an upward trend, which was mainly related with population aging.