Wartime food availability in the Gaza Strip, October 2023 to August 2024: a retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate food availability and the contribution of different food sources during the first 10 months (7 October 2023 to 31 August 2024) of the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip. DESIGN: Retrospective statistical modelling analysis. SETTING: War-affected population in the Gaza Strip, occupied Palestinian Territories, with stratification into northern and south-central governorates. PARTICIPANTS: Entire population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Calories available per capita; proportional contribution to food availability, by source including baseline stocks, agricultural output, trucks and air/sea-borne deliveries. RESULTS: Between October 2023 and April 2024, food trucked into Gaza remained below prewar levels. Israeli data offered higher weight estimates than the United Nations' (UN) but appeared to feature extreme approximation. The share of food categories changed little during the period analysed, but trucked-in food's caloric value was lowest just as food was scarcest (February-March 2024). Trucks accounted for three-fourths of food in south-central Gaza, but <20% in the north; air and sea deliveries contributed little. As of May 2024, when Israel took control of crossings, caloric availability had been insufficient during 8 weeks in northern and 3 weeks in south-central Gaza. Thereafter, UN data featured under-reporting, but even Israeli data indicated declining deliveries. CONCLUSIONS: Israel, as occupying power, did not ensure sufficient food availability throughout the analysis period, and its data appear unreliable. Existing stocks probably mitigated caloric deficits resulting from insufficient deliveries, but air and sea routes added little. Strengthened coordination of food deliveries may be warranted to optimise caloric quantity and dietary diversity.