Temporal trends and machine learning prediction for chronic kidney disease due to hypertension in young adults from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Young adults aged 25-49, at the peak of work and family responsibilities, face serious health and productivity challenges when affected by chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to hypertension. METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2021 data, we assessed global, regional, and national CKD burden due to hypertension in young adults, focusing on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Trends analyzed by Joinpoint regression and forecasted to 2040 using eight machine learning models. RESULTS: In 2021, global mortality from CKD due to hypertension reached 18,675.24 cases, a 157.55% increase since 1990. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) rose from 0.31 to 0.45 per 100,000 persons, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.24% (p < 0.05). DALYs increased by 145.84% to 1,122,316.38 person-years. The age-standardized disability rate (ASDR) grew from 19.39 to 27.37 per 100,000 persons, with an AAPC of 1.12% (p < 0.05). The greatest increase occurred in the 25-29 age group, while those aged 45-49 had the highest burden. Most of the CKD burden due to hypertension was in the three lowest SDI quintiles, while high SDI regions saw the greatest increase. The Prophet model was optimal in predicting the ASMR index, while the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model performed best for the ASDR, with projections indicating an increase in both indices by 2040. CONCLUSIONS: CKD due to hypertension is a growing global challenge in young adults. Substantial heterogeneity exists in the disease burden and its temporal trends across countries and regions, highlighting the strong distributive inequities of CKD worldwide.