Integrated geographical and ecological analysis reveals environmental drivers of Gardenia jasminoides distribution and chemical variation.

Gardenia jasminoides, a widely distributed resource rich in Crocin, has generated substantial market demand due to its potential value as a saffron substitute. This necessitates the exploration of efficient and sustainable cultivation strategies to obtain target compounds for specific purposes. To enhance cultivation efficiency and secure supply chains, we integrated MaxEnt modeling, spatial interpolation, and geodetector analysis. This framework aimed to predict suitable habitats for G. jasminoides across China, map spatial variation in bioactive compounds including Crocin, Gardenia Yellow, and Geniposide, and identify environmental drivers influencing their distribution. MaxEnt achieved high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.960), identifying Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Guangdong as key high-suitability regions. Precipitation of the driest month and human population density emerged as dominant factors shaping species distribution. Spatial gradients revealed that Crocin and Gardenia Yellow decrease from southwest to northeast, whereas Geniposide exhibits latitudinal differentiation characterized by higher concentrations in northern regions. Geodetector analysis highlighted vegetation type as the primary driver of compound variation, with q values of 0.618 for Crocin, 0.606 for Gardenia Yellow, and 0.639 for Geniposide. These results indicate that the accumulation of target compounds is strictly modulated by ecological niches, where specific vegetation types drive metabolic differentiation through microclimate regulation and interspecific competition. Based on these findings, we advocate for an industry-oriented divergent cultivation strategy. Southwestern China should be prioritized for Crocin-rich germplasm to support the natural pigment industry, whereas northern regions are designated as premium zones for pharmaceutical-grade Geniposide sourcing. Furthermore, recognizing vegetation type as a critical driver facilitates the implementation of targeted habitat management techniques. These findings provide a direct guide for designating priority cultivation zones and optimizing harvest timing to maximize the yield of target compounds for specific industrial uses.