Measuring the impact of built environment factors on station-level contributions to link-level crowding using a novel crowding contribution index.
Blessy David Xavier, Varun Varghese, Makoto Chikaraishi, Akimasa Fujiwara
Abstract
Open AccessMetro crowding undermines passenger comfort, operational efficiency and network reliability. While prior research has examined station-level and system-wide crowding, little attention has been given to quantifying how individual stations contribute to link-level overcrowding. This study addresses this gap by introducing the Crowding Contribution Index (CCI), a metric that quantifies the extent to which destination stations drive overcapacity flows on preceding links. The CCI is computed via a structured framework integrating Automated Fare Collection (AFC) and GTFS link-network data. Applied to over 80 million trips across 237 Delhi Metro stations, 142 200 hourly CCI values reveal that 46.35% of station-hours exceed capacity, with highest contributions clustered in specific stations. A Type II Tobit model assesses built-environment (BE) variables, showing that POI and intersection densities increase contributions, while POI entropy reduces them, underscoring land-use diversity's role. Random Forest and XGBoost models corroborate these findings, ranking BE variables as the strongest CCI predictors. These insights emphasise the need for integrated land-use and transport strategies. The CCI framework offers operators a scalable tool for real-time service adjustments, such as targeted short-turns and dynamic fleet deployment, and guides planners toward sustainable, integrated land-use planning, making it especially valuable for rapidly urbanising, data-constrained cities.