Integrated assessment and spatial coordination analysis of water resources carrying capacity in the Changbai mountain headwater region using cloud model and geodetector approach.

The evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC) plays a critical role in understanding regional resource dynamics and guiding the sustainable allocation of water resources. Addressing the inherent uncertainties in hydrological systems and the subjectivity associated with indicator weighting, this study focuses on the headwater region of the Changbai Mountain area. A total of 28 indicators were selected from the "production-living-ecological" framework. Cloud model coupled with entropy weight method and entropy value method were applied to comprehensively assess WRCC, while a geodetector was employed to identify key driving factors. Furthermore, the coordination of WRCC among four regions was quantitatively evaluated by using the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM). Key findings include: (1) The WRCC of Fusong County was at Level II (good carrying capacity) from 2013 to 2016 and in 2019, and at Level III (carrying capacity) in all other years; Jingyu County was at Level II in 2021-2022, and at Level III in all other years; Changbai Korean Autonomous County was at Level III throughout; Linjiang City was at Level II in 2019-2020, and at Level III in all other years. (2) WRCC indices generally declined from northeast to southwest. (3) Urbanization rate (0.712), water consumption rate for forestry (0.584), animal husbandry and fishery (0.539) were the most significant drivers. (4) Coupling degrees among regions ranged from 0.973 to 0.996, with most areas transitioning from imbalance to coordination, except Jingyu County. The study provides scientific insights for optimizing water resource allocation and balancing economic development, human livelihoods, and ecological preservation in the Changbai Mountain area and the middle and lower reaches of the cities in Jilin Province.