Wave energy and other environmental drivers as predictors of seeded-coral performance on the great barrier reef.

Wave energy shapes coral reef communities, yet its influence on early coral survival and growth remains poorly understood, limiting its use in reef restoration planning. This study investigated the survival and growth of three Acropora species deployed on seeding devices across a wave energy gradient at three reefs on the Great Barrier Reef. After 1.5-2 years, survival varied significantly within reefs, among sites, and among species, with highest average yield at Moore Reef (A. millepora, 32% after 554 days) followed by Davies Reef (A. hyacinthus, 24% after 527 days) and Heron Reef (A. hyacinthus: 13% and A. cf. kenti: 23% after 834 days). However, no single environmental variable, including nominal wave energy, bottom stress, flow velocity, sedimentation or benthic community composition consistently predicted survival, and effects weakened over time. Coral size and survival varied more at the device level than across sites, indicating the importance of fine-scale spatial and transient factors. These findings underscore the limitations of broad-scale environmental models to guide restoration and highlight the need for flexible, site-specific strategies. While seeding devices show promise as a scalable restoration tool, their success depends on matching species to suitable microhabitats and monitoring local conditions over time to support long-term outcomes.