Spatial and temporal evolution of land use carbon emission and carbon balance zoning: evidence from Xinjiang China.

Land use (LU) change has become one of the primary sources of regional carbon emissions. Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics and future trends of LU carbon emissions is of great significance for optimizing LU structures, formulating emission reduction policies, and developing a low-carbon economy in the region. Based on data of six LU types and energy consumption from 2000 to 2022 in Xinjiang, this study employs methods such as the LU transfer matrix and land dynamic state to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in LU and carbon emissions in Xinjiang. The results indicate the following: From 2000 to 2022, Xinjiang's LU has undergone significant structural adjustments. The areas of cropland, forest, water, and impervious have continuously expanded, while the areas of grassland and barren have decreased. According to the LU transfer matrix, from 2000 to 2022, in Xinjiang's land transitions, grassland mainly transforms into forest. Forest predominantly converts into cropland. Cropland mainly changes into grassland. Water primarily shifts to barren. Barren mainly transforms into cropland. Carbon emissions in Xinjiang accelerated from 2000 to 2022. The annual net carbon emissions growth exceeded 10%, reaching 1.623 billion tons in 2022. Impervious emissions were the primary source of this increase. In contrast, the total carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems increased slowly during this period. Further research indicates that Xinjiang's carbon emissions generally diffuse from Urumqi outwards to the east and west. Notably, the emission center shows a trend of shifting towards the southwest. The study classifies Xinjiang into four zones based on indicators like net carbon emissions and economic contribution: the low-carbon development zone, the carbon intensity control zone, the carbon sink functional zone, and the high-carbon optimization zone. It then proposes differentiated development strategies for these areas.