The ratio of circulatory levels of sphingolipids to steroids predicts asthma exacerbations.

The lack of biomarkers to identify individuals at risk of asthma exacerbations remains a significant limitation to improving patient outcomes. To address this need, we analyze data from three asthma cohorts, combining up to 25 years of electronic medical records with sequential metabolomics studies, to develop and replicate a predictive model for asthma exacerbation risk. We identify asthma-associated biochemical pathways via global circulatory metabolomics and then apply targeted mass spectrometry methods to quantify selected steroids, sphingolipids, and microbial-derived metabolites. The sphingolipid-to-steroid ratios robustly associate with 5-year exacerbation risk (discovery p value = 1.63×10⁻26-0.029; replication p value = 1.89×10⁻36-0.033). Based upon these findings, we derive and replicate a simple 5-year predictive model of asthma exacerbations using 21 sphingolipid-to-steroid ratios that outperforms current clinical measures (discovery AUC = 0.90; replication AUC = 0.89). These findings underscore the value of metabolomic profiling to develop a practical, cost-effective clinical assay for asthma exacerbation risk that may improve patient care.