Measurement of predictive validity of admission criteria used by public dental colleges in Pakistan. Time to reconsider.

Background/purpose: Dentistry education evolved from treating painful teeth to comprehensive oral care program. Oral health is an integral component of general healthcare. Like medical institutes, dental institutes have introduced admission tests as a component of selection criteria. However, various selection criteria components are not investigated for their predictive validity. This study aimed to measure the predictive value of selection criteria used in Pakistani dental colleges. This study provides recommendations for revision of weightings of admission criteria. Materials and methods: This is a retrospective, quantitative and longitudinal cohort study. Deidentified data from a public dental college of Pakistan were analyzed. The Secondary School Certificate Examination (SSCE), Higher Secondary School Certificate Examination (HSSCE), and admission test scores were used as predictive variables, and professional examinations scores as outcome variables. Spearman's correlation coefficient and multivariate multiple regression (MMR) analyses were performed. Results: Most data were left skewed, suggesting higher scores. The SSCE and admission test scores showed moderate positive correlation with professional examinations (P-values <0.001 to < 0.05). The R2 values from 0.439 to 0.343, indicating a moderate to good amount of variance explained for each professional examination. The SSCE and admission test scores make a significant predictive model for all professional examinations. Conclusion: The SSCE and admission test are the significant predictors of successful professional examinations. The Pakistan Medical and Dental Council (PMDC) should reconsider selection criteria weightings. A revised higher weighting for SSCE and admission test and lower weighting for HSSCE scores would bring fairness in the selection process.