Investigating the impacts of future oil prices on the achievement of 1.5°C climate goal.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from global oil sector is essential for meeting the 1.5°C goal. Existing studies largely adopt top-down approaches, overlooking heterogeneity in oilfield carbon intensity and economic feasibility. We integrate an economic production and life cycle emission model of 4,382 oilfields to assess how future oil prices affect alignment with the climate goals. The results show that the average break-even price was 22.9 $/bbl in 2019, well below the projected future oil prices, indicating substantial profitability. The oil sector is expected to emit 386.7 Gt CO2 cumulatively by 2050, exceeding the 1.5°C goal carbon budget (50% chance) by 6.2%. If only oil sector emissions are considered, achieving the 1.5°C goal (50% chance) would require average oil price to remain below 57.4 $/bbl. These findings highlight the urgent need for coordinated strategies to reconcile the oil sector's future production with the imperative climate goals.