Climate change impacts on the distribution of valuable Thelephora fungi in China.

Thelephora includes valuable edible ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in East Asia threatened by overharvesting, climate change, and habitat loss. Using Biomod2 ensemble modeling with bioclimatic variables, elevation data, and occurrence records, this study predicted current and future distributions of four Thelephora species under climate scenarios SSP2-45 and SSP5-85 for the 2050s and 2090s. The results indicate that the potential distribution ranges of these four Thelephora species are primarily influenced by Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), Bio12 (annual precipitation), elevation, and Bio3 (isothermality), though the relative importance of these factors varies among species. High-emission scenarios predict habitat reduction by 2050, with potential range expansion by 2090. Warming will drive northward habitat shifts, with migration distances increasing under high-emission scenarios. Over half of potential distribution areas contain non-host vegetation. Conservation strategies should prioritize host plant cultivation to expand fungal habitats and mitigate climate impacts.