A survival analysis of T1 stage breast cancer and nomogram development: based on the SEER database.

INTRODUCTION: Breast Cancer (BC) is a widespread non-cutaneous malignancy. T1 stage of small tumors are generally considered to have a favorable prognosis, but controversy persists regarding their treatment and prognosis. METHODS: The cohort included clinicopathological characteristics of BC patients along with treatment information from T1 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program (SEER) database from 2010‒2015. Construct a nomogram based on the variables identified by the multifactorial analysis results. RESULTS: A total of 164,906 female patient records were obtained for enrolment. Patients in the training set of T1 had a 3-, 5- and 10-years of OS for 95.2 %, 90.9 % and 84.4 % as well as a 3-, 5- and 10-years of BCSS for 98.4 %, 97.0 % and 95.4 %. Multivariate analysis found age, race, grade, T-stage, N-stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, Estrogen Receptor (ER) status, Progesterone Receptor (PR) status and Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor-2 (HER2) status to be associated with OS. And age, grade, T-stage, N-stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, diagnosis to treatment, ER-status, PR-status, and HER2-status are associated with BCSS. Independent prognostic risk factors incorporated into the construction of a nomogram. The AUC values for 3-, 5- and 10-years of OS and BCSS were greater than 0.7. The ROC, calibration and DCA curves verified that the nomogram had better predictability and benefits. CONCLUSION: The outcomes demonstrated a disparity in prognosis between groups T1a, T1b, and T1c. The constructed nomogram is able to predict OS and BCSS for 3-, 5- and 10-year periods reasonably well.