Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Suitable Distribution of Rhodiola Species in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Modeling Insights for Conservation Prioritization.

Using the MaxEnt model with climatic, topographical, soil, and human activity factors, this study predicted suitable habitats for eight Rhodiola species in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and analyzed conservation gaps via ArcGIS overlay analysis. Models demonstrated high accuracy, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.88 to 0.99. Human activities dominated habitat suitability for most species (contribution: 37.0%-76.4%), except R. atsaensis (RA), driven by climate (38.9%) and topography (32.8%). Current suitable habitats varied widely, with RA occupying the largest area (1.69 × 106 km2), and R. sacra (RS) the smallest (5.61 × 104 km2). Future climate scenarios show seven Rhodiola species (except RS) will expand, and all have increasing highly suitable areas. R. smithii and R. tibetica expand most; RS only expands under SSP1-2.6 in 2090. Current nature reserve coverage protects 33.42% of the suitable habitats for Rhodiola species on the plateau, with national reserves accounting for 28.13% and other protected areas (PAs) only 5.29%. Protection efficiency varies significantly among species. RA has the highest protection rate (35.38%), while R. bupleuroides and RS show the lowest (~20%). National reserves exhibit protection rates of 13.11%-29.98% for suitable habitats, surpassing other-level reserves (2.1%-8.27%). Conservation gaps are concentrated in ecologically sensitive zones such as the Hotan-Ngari, Lhasa, and eastern Chamdo. Strikingly, protection of high and medium habitats remains extremely low (5.12%). The findings provide critical insights for prioritizing strategic conservation efforts and optimizing PA networks across the QTP, thereby addressing the current protection gaps and enhancing ecological connectivity.