Climate Change Effect on Haematoxylum campechianum and Haematoxylum calakmulense (Fabaceae): Are We Losing Our Natural Heritage in South-Eastern Mexico?

Climate change threatens biodiversity and the balance of ecosystems. Ecological niche models (ENMs) permit exploring the consequences of climate change on species distribution patterns and are an applicable tool for the management of key species. Haematoxylum campechianum and Haematoxylum calakmulense are two plant species of economic and socio-cultural interest for the Mesoamerican region. We aimed to characterize and identify the climatic niche overlap of both species and to assess the impact of climate change on their potential distribution in southeastern Mexico. We used 53 occurrence records of H. calakmulense and 604 of H. campechianum and a selection of climatic variables. After calibration and evaluation of the models, the best performing model for each species was selected. The models show a better performance with AUC values of 0.75 for H. campechianum and 0.66 for H. calakmulense. The niches of both species are similar, although not equivalent, but the variable with the greatest contribution in the case of H. campechianum is the mean annual temperature, whereas for H. calakmulense it is the mean temperature of the coldest quarter. It seems that H. calakmulense will lose more suitable areas in the future. In contrast, future projections for H. campechianum predict an area gain toward the southeast of Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. This may indicate that H. campechianum is more resistant to climatic variation in the region, while H. calakmulense may have more problems with temperature variation soon. Our results should be considered in current and future reforestation plans to improve their efficiency.